History
The trajectory of robots
Records published over time, 12-month progress, humanoid announcements and dated milestones. Past data only; any projection is flagged as a hypothesis.
The record, month by month
Each dot = a model published on a capability's reference test, at its publication date. Step line = record as of that date. Green dotted line = 99%. Results in simulation.
- Record (best published result as of that date)
- Physical Intelligence (π0 → π0.5)
- Stanford (OpenVLA → OFT)
- NVIDIA (GR00T)
- Hugging Face (SmolVLA)
- Other models
Show the successive records (table): Successive published records — Basic skills (test: Instruction following)
| Date | Model | Success rate |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 2024 | VPT | 16.1% |
| Jan 2024 | Diffusion Policy | 54.5% |
| Jan 2024 | ATM | 63.4% |
| Jun 2024 | Diffusion Policy | 72.4% |
| Jun 2024 | OpenVLA | 76.5% |
| Oct 2024 | DiT Policy | 82.4% |
| Jan 2025 | EnerVerse | 84.1% |
| Feb 2025 | π₀ | 94.1% |
| Feb 2025 | OpenVLA-OFT | 97.1% |
| Feb 2025 | OpenVLA-OFT + VLA-Cache | 97.4% |
| May 2025 | Hume | 98.6% |
| Sep 2025 | SimpleVLA-RL | 99.0% |
| Nov 2025 | SRPO (Online) | 99.2% |
| Mar 2026 | AcceRL | 99.4% |
| Apr 2026 | LaST-R1 | 99.9% |
| Sep 2026 | LaST-R1 | 99.9% |
12-month progress
Record published today and 12 months ago, on each capability's reference test (simulation).
| Capability | 12 months ago | Today | Change | Linear projection to 99% · hypothesis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Basic skills Instruction following | 99.0% | 99.9% | +0.9 pts | ≥ 99% already published (simulation) |
Robustness Robustness to the unexpected | — | 92% | — | Less than 12 months of data |
Realism Small arm: realism | 74% | 98% | +24.0 pts | ≈ 2027 at a constant pace |
Two arms Two arms, cluttered scene | 24% | 96% | +72.0 pts | ≈ 2027 at a constant pace |
Home Virtual kitchen (mobile arm) | 70% | 81% | +10.5 pts | ≈ 2028 at a constant pace |
Memory Working memory | — | 84% | — | Less than 12 months of data |
Long missions Long, unpredictable missions | 25% | 25% | +0.0 pts | Progress < 0.5 pt/year: cannot be extrapolated |
Speculative column. It extends the change over the last 12 months in a straight line. This calculation ignores test saturation (the last points are the hardest), the gap between simulation and the real world, and the arrival of new, more demanding tests. It is not a forecast.
Humanoids announced per year
Number of catalog models by year of announcement, China / rest of the world.
- China
- Rest of the world
Show chart data: Humanoids announced per year: China and rest of the world
| Year | China | Rest of the world | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 2020 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2021 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| 2022 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 2023 | 3 | 5 | 8 |
| 2024 | 13 | 7 | 20 |
| 2025 | 17 | 11 | 28 |
| 2026 | 3 | 4 | 7 |
embodiedrank catalog (71 models still tracked): models abandoned before 2024 are underrepresented, and 2026 is not over.
Half marathon: robots and the human record
Half marathon (21 km): time in minutes, shorter = better.
- Best robot 20252 h 40 min
- Human record57 min
- Best robot 202650 min
Marked road course. In 2026, about 40% of the entered robots were autonomous, the others remote-controlled.
Milestones
Records, deployments, research results, market, and documented cases of teleoperation.
- market
5 million robots in factories
IFR: more than 600,000 industrial robots installed in 2025, 59% of them in China.
- research
Figure 03 tested in 30 homes: 56%
First large-scale evaluation in unfamiliar homes: slightly more than one task in two completed.
- market
Unitree goes public
Listing on Shanghai's STAR Market; about 11,000 Unitree humanoids sold in total as of mid-2026.
- deployment
Figure 03 in production at BMW
Parts sequencing in logistics at Spartanburg since June 30, 2026.
- deployment
Humanoid at Siemens: 60 totes/hour
HMND 01 proof of concept: more than 8 h of uptime, more than 90% success at pick-and-place.
- record
A robot beats the human half-marathon record
Honor's “Lightning” runs 21 km in 50:26 autonomously (human record: 57:20). About 60% of the robots entered were remote-controlled.
- research
“Humanoid Olympics”: 4 to 10 times slower
Physical Intelligence autonomously completes everyday challenges (sock, key, T-shirt), but 4 to 10 times more slowly than a human.
- market
13,000 to 18,000 humanoids shipped in 2025
Omdia and IDC estimates: Chinese manufacturers (AgiBot, Unitree, UBTech) dominate; American ones are at a few dozen units.
- research
BEHAVIOR Challenge: 12% success
On 50 long household tasks in simulation, the best system completes only 12.4% of tasks end to end.
- deployment
Figure 02 leaves BMW after 11 months
Results published by Figure: 1,250 hours of work, 90,000 parts loaded, a contribution to 30,000 BMW X3s. The forearm was the weak point.
- warning
World Humanoid Robot Games
280 teams, 26 events. Unitree H1 wins the 1,500 m… teleoperated, like many competitors.
- record
First humanoid half marathon (Beijing)
Tiangong Ultra wins in 2 h 40 min with three battery swaps; the only robot to finish within the time limit.
- research
π0.5 cleans homes it has never seen
Physical Intelligence shows a robot tidying unfamiliar kitchens and bedrooms, on tasks lasting 2 to 5 minutes, with frequent errors.
- warning
Optimus robots teleoperated at the “We, Robot” event
The Tesla robots that served drinks and chatted with guests were remotely controlled by humans.
- deployment
Digit at work at GXO
Agility Robotics signs the first full-time commercial deployment of a humanoid in a warehouse (moving totes).
- research
Honda unveils ASIMO
The first humanoid to walk smoothly, with wide media coverage. Its sequences were largely preprogrammed; retired in 2022 without commercial use.